Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.2% vs 51.3%). Look for Paul on defensive-zone draws (77% H2H, 17 meetings). Paul wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 52.2% vs Monahan 51.3% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 19-14 in 33 meetings
Offensive zone
Monahan 69.6%
Defensive zone
Paul 66.3%
Neutral zone
Monahan 53.1%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 54.9%
54.9%
45.1%
Paul
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
19
-
14
(33 meetings)
19
14
Paul
Monahan
Last 10: Paul 6-4 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
1
3
Paul
Monahan
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
13
4
Paul
Monahan
17 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
5
7
Paul
Monahan
12 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (3,796)
51.1% (11,356)
+1.4%
Power Play
56.5% (480)
53.7% (2,580)
+2.8%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (574)
46.0% (766)
+0.7%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,067).
Paul shoots left. Monahan is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (9,301).
Home / Away
Paul
Monahan
Home
52.7% (2,412)
52.4% (7,358)
Away
51.7% (2,439)
50.2% (7,344)
By Period
Paul
Monahan
P1
53.9%
50.9%
P2
51.0%
51.7%
P3
52.0%
51.0%
OT
50.0%
53.5%
Final 5 min
51.4%
50.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
52.2%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 14:31 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 3 | 14:21 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 04:58 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 24, 2026 | 1 | 18:33 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 3 | 01:31 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 2 | 13:43 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 2 | 02:32 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 1 | 12:46 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 2 | 08:39 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 7, 2023 | 3 | 01:02 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 13, 2022 | 2 | 17:07 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 13, 2022 | 2 | 17:01 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 13, 2022 | 2 | 07:46 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 13, 2022 | 2 | 01:47 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Jan 13, 2022 | 1 | 13:28 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Jan 13, 2022 | 1 | 01:43 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 14, 2021 | 3 | 02:33 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 14, 2021 | 2 | 07:40 | Defensive | Nick Paul |