Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +2.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 50.0% vs Monahan 52.4% (-2.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 61.3%
Defensive zone
Paul 53.0%
Neutral zone
Monahan 62.2%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 52.9%
47.1%
52.9%
Paul
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Paul
Monahan
Last 5: Paul 3-2 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
1
Paul
Monahan
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
2
1
Paul
Monahan
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
1
0
Paul
Monahan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
48.8% (666)
52.4% (853)
-3.6%
Power Play
53.8% (65)
58.6% (174)
-4.8%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (55)
46.5% (144)
+13.5%
On penalty kill, Paul has a +13.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Paul is 51.9% vs left-shot opponents (543).
Paul shoots left. Monahan is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (782).
Home / Away
Paul
Monahan
Home
49.7% (348)
53.4% (624)
Away
50.2% (438)
51.7% (547)
By Period
Paul
Monahan
P1
51.0%
53.7%
P2
47.4%
52.4%
P3
51.5%
51.6%
OT
0.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
53.2%
49.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
50.0%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
52.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 17, 2024 | 3 | 01:31 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 2 | 13:43 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 2 | 02:32 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 17, 2024 | 1 | 12:46 | Defensive | Nick Paul |