Scouting Report
Tomas Nosek holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Paul wins 53.2% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 50.4% vs Nosek 53.4% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nosek 61.2%
Defensive zone
Nosek 60.0%
Neutral zone
Nosek 50.5%
Result
Tomas Nosek favored at 60.8%
39.2%
60.8%
Paul
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Paul
Nosek
Last 6: Paul 4-2 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Paul
3
1
Paul
Nosek
4 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Paul
Nosek
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
53.0% (644)
55.1% (557)
-2.1%
Power Play
37.5% (24)
50.0% (4)
-12.5%
Penalty Kill
42.9% (177)
47.7% (111)
-4.8%
On power play, Nosek has a +12.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Paul is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (459).
Paul shoots left. Nosek is 54.3% vs left-shot opponents (392).
Home / Away
Paul
Nosek
Home
52.5% (516)
52.3% (342)
Away
47.1% (329)
55.5% (330)
By Period
Paul
Nosek
P1
47.6%
49.0%
P2
48.4%
53.8%
P3
54.5%
57.9%
Final 5 min
49.0%
50.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
50.4%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
53.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 12, 2022 | 3 | 03:43 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 12, 2022 | 2 | 19:17 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Feb 12, 2022 | 2 | 15:58 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 12, 2022 | 2 | 12:29 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 2 | 11:32 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 2 | 02:27 | Offensive | Nick Paul |