Scouting Report
Tomas Nosek holds a +1.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Nosek on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Paul wins 54.6% vs left-shot opponents — Nosek shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Paul 52.2% vs Nosek 53.6% (-1.5%)
H2H factor
Nosek leads 12-10 in 22 meetings
Offensive zone
Paul 53.6%
Defensive zone
Nosek 54.6%
Neutral zone
Nosek 50.4%
Result
Nick Paul favored at 50.1%
50.1%
49.9%
Paul
Nosek
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
12
(22 meetings)
10
12
Paul
Nosek
Last 10: Paul 3-7 Nosek
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
4
4
Paul
Nosek
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nosek
1
4
Paul
Nosek
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
5
4
Paul
Nosek
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Paul
Nosek
Edge
Even Strength
52.5% (3,796)
54.9% (2,674)
-2.4%
Power Play
56.5% (480)
44.7% (47)
+11.8%
Penalty Kill
46.7% (574)
47.4% (424)
-0.7%
On power play, Paul has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nosek shoots left. Paul is 54.6% vs left-shot opponents (3,067).
Paul shoots left. Nosek is 54.5% vs left-shot opponents (1,942).
Home / Away
Paul
Nosek
Home
52.7% (2,412)
52.7% (1,631)
Away
51.7% (2,439)
54.8% (1,514)
By Period
Paul
Nosek
P1
53.9%
52.3%
P2
51.0%
54.0%
P3
52.0%
54.6%
OT
50.0%
75.0%
Final 5 min
51.4%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
52.2%
Nosek
46.0%▼
49.0%
53.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2025 | 3 | 02:07 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 3, 2025 | 1 | 05:03 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 17:38 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 16:55 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 16:46 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Dec 23, 2024 | 3 | 05:58 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Dec 22, 2024 | 1 | 14:58 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Feb 25, 2024 | 3 | 18:25 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Feb 25, 2024 | 1 | 15:37 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 25, 2024 | 1 | 15:29 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 3 | 06:24 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 3 | 06:18 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Nosek |
| Mar 25, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Feb 12, 2022 | 3 | 03:43 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 12, 2022 | 2 | 19:17 | Defensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Feb 12, 2022 | 2 | 15:58 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Feb 12, 2022 | 2 | 12:29 | Offensive | Tomas Nosek |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 2 | 11:32 | Offensive | Nick Paul |
| Nov 9, 2021 | 2 | 02:27 | Offensive | Nick Paul |