Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +16.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Schmaltz on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Schmaltz wins 41.7% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schmaltz 42.8% vs Hertl 56.8% (-16.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 59.6%
Defensive zone
Hertl 64.0%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 51.1%
Result
Tomas Hertl favored at 54.6%
45.4%
54.6%
Schmaltz
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Schmaltz
Hertl
Last 5: Schmaltz 2-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
2
Schmaltz
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Schmaltz
2
1
Schmaltz
Hertl
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schmaltz
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
38.5% (309)
57.0% (718)
-18.5%
Power Play
53.2% (79)
64.9% (188)
-11.7%
Penalty Kill
25.0% (12)
44.2% (77)
-19.2%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +19.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.7% vs left-shot opponents (309).
Schmaltz shoots right. Hertl is 62.5% vs right-shot opponents (352).
Home / Away
Schmaltz
Hertl
Home
38.0% (184)
59.2% (463)
Away
43.5% (216)
56.0% (520)
By Period
Schmaltz
Hertl
P1
40.3%
56.3%
P2
39.9%
55.4%
P3
40.7%
60.5%
OT
70.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
41.6%
56.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
41.0%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 17:45 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 12:04 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 3 | 17:19 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 3 | 01:03 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 2 | 00:37 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |