Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +11.7% FO% edge overall. Schmaltz wins 41.7% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schmaltz 46.6% vs Hertl 57.2% (-11.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 55.6%
Defensive zone
Hertl 50.1%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 52.8%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 52.8%
52.8%
47.2%
Schmaltz
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Schmaltz
Hertl
Last 5: Schmaltz 2-3 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Schmaltz
Hertl
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Schmaltz
Hertl
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
0
1
Schmaltz
Hertl
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schmaltz
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
45.9% (665)
58.1% (823)
-12.2%
Power Play
46.8% (111)
56.2% (265)
-9.4%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (24)
62.9% (35)
-12.9%
On penalty kill, Hertl has a +12.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.7% vs left-shot opponents (559).
Schmaltz shoots right. Hertl is 59.6% vs right-shot opponents (433).
Home / Away
Schmaltz
Hertl
Home
44.7% (409)
59.7% (561)
Away
47.6% (391)
55.9% (562)
By Period
Schmaltz
Hertl
P1
40.3%
51.6%
P2
47.6%
63.8%
P3
51.0%
58.6%
OT
0.0%
28.6%
Final 5 min
40.2%
58.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
46.1%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
57.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 08:17 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 10:59 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 18:59 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 06:38 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 18:48 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |