Scouting Report
Tomas Hertl holds a +11.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Hertl on defensive-zone draws (65% H2H, 17 meetings). Schmaltz wins 41.2% vs left-shot opponents — Hertl shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Schmaltz 42.5% vs Hertl 54.2% (-11.9%)
H2H factor
Hertl leads 31-22 in 53 meetings
Offensive zone
Schmaltz 75.1%
Defensive zone
Schmaltz 74.7%
Neutral zone
Schmaltz 87.1%
Result
Nick Schmaltz favored at 78.8%
78.8%
21.2%
Schmaltz
Hertl
Head-to-Head Record
22
-
31
(53 meetings)
22
31
Schmaltz
Hertl
Last 10: Schmaltz 5-5 Hertl
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
9
10
Schmaltz
Hertl
19 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hertl
6
11
Schmaltz
Hertl
17 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hertl
7
10
Schmaltz
Hertl
17 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Schmaltz
Hertl
Edge
Even Strength
41.2% (3,399)
53.8% (8,268)
-12.6%
Power Play
47.1% (649)
59.3% (1,975)
-12.2%
Penalty Kill
47.8% (134)
46.3% (806)
+1.5%
On even strength, Hertl has a +12.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hertl shoots left. Schmaltz is 41.2% vs left-shot opponents (3,015).
Schmaltz shoots right. Hertl is 56.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,133).
Home / Away
Schmaltz
Hertl
Home
42.7% (2,089)
55.7% (5,344)
Away
41.9% (2,093)
52.8% (5,705)
By Period
Schmaltz
Hertl
P1
41.1%
53.6%
P2
42.9%
54.1%
P3
43.0%
55.3%
OT
42.4%
46.5%
Final 5 min
42.2%
54.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Schmaltz
46.0%▬
45.0%
42.3%
Hertl
56.0%▼
60.0%
54.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2026 | 3 | 08:17 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 2 | 10:59 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 19, 2026 | 1 | 18:59 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 2 | 06:38 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 20, 2025 | 1 | 18:48 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Nov 15, 2024 | 3 | 13:49 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Nov 2, 2024 | 2 | 02:59 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 17:45 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 12:04 | Defensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 3 | 17:19 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 3 | 01:03 | Offensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Dec 15, 2023 | 2 | 00:37 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 1, 2023 | 2 | 17:36 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 30, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 30, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Schmaltz |
| Mar 30, 2022 | 1 | 08:31 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Mar 30, 2022 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 28, 2021 | 3 | 16:12 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |
| Apr 28, 2021 | 2 | 19:47 | Defensive | Tomas Hertl |
| Apr 28, 2021 | 2 | 08:40 | Offensive | Nick Schmaltz |