Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +8.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Barbashev wins 45.5% vs left-shot opponents — Sturm shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barbashev 45.7% vs Sturm 50.9% (-8.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Barbashev 67.7%
Defensive zone
Barbashev 62.6%
Neutral zone
Barbashev 64.1%
Result
Ivan Barbashev favored at 64.7%
64.7%
35.3%
Barbashev
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
5
(8 meetings)
3
5
Barbashev
Sturm
Last 8: Barbashev 3-5 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barbashev
2
0
Barbashev
Sturm
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
0
2
Barbashev
Sturm
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
3
Barbashev
Sturm
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barbashev
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
46.8% (154)
50.8% (126)
-4.0%
Penalty Kill
28.6% (35)
66.7% (6)
-38.1%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +38.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Barbashev is 45.5% vs left-shot opponents (121).
Barbashev shoots left. Sturm is 50.0% vs left-shot opponents (88).
Home / Away
Barbashev
Sturm
Home
40.6% (101)
54.1% (74)
Away
46.6% (88)
48.3% (60)
By Period
Barbashev
Sturm
P1
43.3%
48.1%
P2
41.1%
62.0%
P3
45.5%
40.0%
Final 5 min
34.8%
55.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barbashev
22.0%▼
35.0%
43.4%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2021 | 2 | 15:05 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 3 | 06:55 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 2 | 10:55 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 1 | 05:28 | Offensive | Ivan Barbashev |
| Apr 29, 2021 | 1 | 05:23 | Offensive | Ivan Barbashev |
| Apr 10, 2021 | 2 | 14:40 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 10, 2021 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ivan Barbashev |
| Apr 10, 2021 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |