Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +13.3% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on neutral-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Sturm wins 67.8% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 59.0% vs Roy 47.2% (+13.3%)
H2H factor
Sturm leads 8-2 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Sturm 91.7%
Defensive zone
Sturm 90.6%
Neutral zone
Sturm 91.6%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 91.3%
91.3%
8.7%
Sturm
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
2
(10 meetings)
8
2
Sturm
Roy
Last 10: Sturm 8-2 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
2
0
Sturm
Roy
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
2
1
Sturm
Roy
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
4
1
Sturm
Roy
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
60.6% (708)
47.5% (617)
+13.1%
Power Play
61.1% (18)
39.6% (53)
+21.5%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (101)
46.4% (97)
+10.0%
On power play, Sturm has a +21.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Sturm is 67.8% vs right-shot opponents (264).
Sturm shoots left. Roy is 45.0% vs left-shot opponents (593).
Home / Away
Sturm
Roy
Home
61.6% (451)
47.2% (398)
Away
58.2% (376)
46.3% (369)
By Period
Sturm
Roy
P1
55.9%
48.6%
P2
58.9%
48.8%
P3
64.6%
43.9%
OT
70.6%
0.0%
Final 5 min
59.5%
45.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
60.1%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 19, 2024 | 1 | 12:48 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 3 | 15:18 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 1 | 19:07 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 3 | 02:17 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 2 | 18:59 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 2 | 09:18 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 2 | 05:49 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 2 | 02:37 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 1 | 15:38 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 1 | 15:25 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |