Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +11.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Sturm wins 64.3% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 57.1% vs Roy 47.9% (+11.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 60.7%
Defensive zone
Sturm 78.7%
Neutral zone
Sturm 80.1%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 73.6%
73.6%
26.4%
Sturm
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Sturm
Roy
Last 6: Sturm 4-2 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Sturm
Roy
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
3
1
Sturm
Roy
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
62.1% (356)
48.6% (679)
+13.5%
Power Play
75.0% (4)
48.0% (50)
+27.0%
Penalty Kill
38.7% (62)
34.7% (49)
+4.0%
On power play, Sturm has a +27.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Sturm is 64.3% vs right-shot opponents (143).
Sturm shoots left. Roy is 45.1% vs left-shot opponents (592).
Home / Away
Sturm
Roy
Home
61.8% (191)
49.3% (345)
Away
56.3% (231)
46.4% (433)
By Period
Sturm
Roy
P1
58.0%
47.6%
P2
57.9%
47.1%
P3
60.6%
47.9%
Final 5 min
58.3%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
58.8%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
47.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 19:27 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 17:07 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 11:10 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2 | 19:26 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2 | 01:54 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 1 | 01:57 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |