Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +2.4% FO% edge overall. Sturm wins 54.2% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 53.6% vs Roy 51.9% (+2.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 50.5%
Defensive zone
Sturm 59.4%
Neutral zone
Sturm 62.4%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 55.0%
55.0%
45.0%
Sturm
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Sturm
Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
0
Sturm
Roy
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
0
Sturm
Roy
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
54.6% (271)
51.9% (547)
+2.7%
Penalty Kill
54.4% (90)
53.3% (92)
+1.1%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Sturm is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (118).
Sturm shoots left. Roy is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (464).
Home / Away
Sturm
Roy
Home
53.0% (168)
54.0% (328)
Away
56.0% (193)
50.6% (348)
By Period
Sturm
Roy
P1
58.2%
53.5%
P2
53.2%
51.6%
P3
52.3%
51.6%
Final 5 min
55.7%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 1 | 04:59 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 09:02 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |