Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on neutral-zone draws (73% H2H, 11 meetings). Sturm wins 57.9% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 56.1% vs Roy 48.4% (+7.9%)
H2H factor
Sturm leads 16-7 in 23 meetings
Offensive zone
Sturm 78.4%
Defensive zone
Sturm 91.2%
Neutral zone
Sturm 91.2%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 88.4%
88.4%
11.6%
Sturm
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
16
-
7
(23 meetings)
16
7
Sturm
Roy
Last 10: Sturm 7-3 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
4
1
Sturm
Roy
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
4
3
Sturm
Roy
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
8
3
Sturm
Roy
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (2,719)
48.7% (3,719)
+8.4%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
49.5% (283)
+11.8%
Penalty Kill
51.0% (498)
45.5% (477)
+5.5%
On power play, Sturm has a +11.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Sturm is 57.9% vs right-shot opponents (1,093).
Sturm shoots left. Roy is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (3,288).
Home / Away
Sturm
Roy
Home
57.1% (1,614)
49.5% (2,221)
Away
55.4% (1,665)
47.3% (2,258)
By Period
Sturm
Roy
P1
56.5%
50.8%
P2
54.9%
46.3%
P3
57.4%
48.1%
OT
60.6%
50.0%
Final 5 min
56.9%
47.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 1 | 04:59 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 09:02 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 19:27 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 17:07 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 3 | 11:10 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2 | 19:26 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 2 | 01:54 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 26, 2024 | 1 | 01:57 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 19, 2024 | 1 | 12:48 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 3 | 15:18 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 10, 2023 | 1 | 19:07 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 3 | 02:17 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 2 | 18:59 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 2 | 09:18 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 2 | 05:49 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 2 | 02:37 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 1 | 15:38 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 12, 2023 | 1 | 15:25 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 2 | 17:15 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 15, 2022 | 1 | 13:46 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |