Nico Sturm vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Sturm wins 54.7% vs left-shot opponents — Nugent-Hopkins shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 53.6% vs Nugent-Hopkins 48.6% (+6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 77.4%
Defensive zone
Sturm 76.2%
Neutral zone
Nugent-Hopkins 50.6%
Result
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins favored at 50.6%
49.4%
50.6%
Sturm
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Sturm
Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
0
Sturm
Nugent-Hopkins
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Nugent-Hopkins
0
1
Sturm
Nugent-Hopkins
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
54.6% (271)
47.6% (231)
+7.0%
Penalty Kill
54.4% (90)
33.3% (21)
+21.1%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +21.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Sturm is 54.7% vs left-shot opponents (243).
Sturm shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 49.4% vs left-shot opponents (168).
Home / Away
Sturm
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
53.0% (168)
51.2% (164)
Away
56.0% (193)
43.0% (100)
By Period
Sturm
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
58.2%
50.0%
P2
53.2%
46.2%
P3
52.3%
49.5%
OT
100.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
55.7%
44.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Nugent-Hopkins
58.0%▲
50.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 10:22 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 07:44 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |