Nico Sturm vs Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +11.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Sturm wins 55.4% vs left-shot opponents — Nugent-Hopkins shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 56.1% vs Nugent-Hopkins 44.8% (+11.6%)
H2H factor
Sturm leads 14-3 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Sturm 61.9%
Defensive zone
Sturm 96.3%
Neutral zone
Sturm 88.5%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 78.3%
78.3%
21.7%
Sturm
Nugent-Hopkins
Head-to-Head Record
14
-
3
(17 meetings)
14
3
Sturm
Nugent-Hopkins
Last 10: Sturm 9-1 Nugent-Hopkins
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
6
2
Sturm
Nugent-Hopkins
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
4
1
Sturm
Nugent-Hopkins
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
4
0
Sturm
Nugent-Hopkins
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Nugent-Hopkins
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (2,719)
44.9% (8,756)
+12.2%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
50.7% (839)
+10.6%
Penalty Kill
51.0% (498)
37.9% (879)
+13.1%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +13.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Sturm is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (2,186).
Sturm shoots left. Nugent-Hopkins is 44.7% vs left-shot opponents (6,841).
Home / Away
Sturm
Nugent-Hopkins
Home
57.1% (1,614)
46.5% (5,350)
Away
55.4% (1,665)
42.9% (5,136)
By Period
Sturm
Nugent-Hopkins
P1
56.5%
45.1%
P2
54.9%
43.9%
P3
57.4%
45.3%
OT
60.6%
43.5%
Final 5 min
56.9%
43.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Nugent-Hopkins
58.0%▲
50.0%
44.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | 3 | 10:22 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 2, 2025 | 3 | 07:44 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 2 | 16:45 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 2 | 16:35 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 2 | 01:59 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 2 | 01:56 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 20, 2023 | OT | 01:19 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 20, 2023 | 2 | 10:23 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 13, 2023 | 3 | 13:56 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 13, 2023 | 3 | 05:11 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 13, 2023 | 3 | 05:02 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 22, 2022 | 2 | 03:17 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 22, 2022 | 1 | 01:17 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 9, 2022 | OT | 00:44 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Apr 9, 2022 | 1 | 13:13 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 9, 2022 | 1 | 10:12 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Apr 9, 2022 | 1 | 01:30 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |