Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +6.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Sturm wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 55.2% vs Carrick 49.5% (+6.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 51.1%
Defensive zone
Carrick 62.1%
Neutral zone
Carrick 56.8%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 56.8%
43.2%
56.8%
Sturm
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
4
(7 meetings)
3
4
Sturm
Carrick
Last 7: Sturm 3-4 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Sturm
Carrick
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
2
Sturm
Carrick
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Sturm
Carrick
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (716)
49.2% (307)
+6.9%
Power Play
67.7% (31)
66.7% (6)
+1.0%
Penalty Kill
51.1% (133)
48.2% (56)
+2.9%
On even strength, Sturm has a +6.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Sturm is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (288).
Sturm shoots left. Carrick is 49.0% vs left-shot opponents (288).
Home / Away
Sturm
Carrick
Home
55.6% (412)
50.3% (175)
Away
56.0% (468)
48.5% (194)
By Period
Sturm
Carrick
P1
59.6%
41.0%
P2
52.0%
51.2%
P3
55.5%
55.3%
Final 5 min
56.8%
37.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
55.8%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
49.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6, 2023 | 3 | 07:45 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 3 | 01:58 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 2 | 04:29 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 1 | 18:21 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 1 | 05:08 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 1 | 04:58 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 1 | 02:31 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |