Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +6.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Sturm wins 67.8% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 59.0% vs Carrick 53.0% (+6.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 80.7%
Defensive zone
Sturm 63.6%
Neutral zone
Sturm 69.9%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 69.5%
69.5%
30.5%
Sturm
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
3
(9 meetings)
6
3
Sturm
Carrick
Last 9: Sturm 6-3 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Sturm
Carrick
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
3
1
Sturm
Carrick
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
2
1
Sturm
Carrick
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
60.6% (708)
53.9% (521)
+6.7%
Power Play
61.1% (18)
57.1% (35)
+4.0%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (101)
51.5% (229)
+4.9%
On even strength, Sturm has a +6.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Sturm is 67.8% vs right-shot opponents (264).
Sturm shoots left. Carrick is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (562).
Home / Away
Sturm
Carrick
Home
61.6% (451)
52.7% (408)
Away
58.2% (376)
54.1% (377)
By Period
Sturm
Carrick
P1
55.9%
51.4%
P2
58.9%
56.6%
P3
64.6%
52.1%
Final 5 min
59.5%
57.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
60.1%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15, 2024 | 2 | 13:49 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 2 | 01:58 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 1 | 02:23 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 18:38 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 12:25 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 1 | 14:01 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 1 | 08:45 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 31, 2024 | 2 | 15:03 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 12, 2023 | 3 | 19:29 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |