Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (54.6% vs 54.5%). Sturm wins 54.2% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 53.6% vs Carrick 53.8% (+0.1%)
Offensive zone
Carrick 53.2%
Defensive zone
Sturm 51.3%
Neutral zone
Carrick 50.5%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 50.8%
49.2%
50.8%
Sturm
Carrick
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
54.6% (271)
55.1% (439)
-0.5%
Penalty Kill
54.4% (90)
49.1% (53)
+5.3%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +5.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Sturm is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (118).
Sturm shoots left. Carrick is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (355).
Home / Away
Sturm
Carrick
Home
53.0% (168)
58.2% (225)
Away
56.0% (193)
51.5% (270)
By Period
Sturm
Carrick
P1
58.2%
56.7%
P2
53.2%
52.8%
P3
52.3%
54.4%
Final 5 min
55.7%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
54.5%