Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (57% H2H, 7 meetings). Sturm wins 57.9% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 56.1% vs Carrick 52.1% (+4.1%)
H2H factor
Sturm leads 9-7 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
Sturm 61.4%
Defensive zone
Sturm 51.0%
Neutral zone
Sturm 54.8%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 54.8%
54.8%
45.2%
Sturm
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
7
(16 meetings)
9
7
Sturm
Carrick
Last 10: Sturm 7-3 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
2
2
Sturm
Carrick
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
4
3
Sturm
Carrick
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
3
2
Sturm
Carrick
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (2,719)
52.1% (2,513)
+5.0%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
61.3% (75)
+0.0%
Penalty Kill
51.0% (498)
50.7% (430)
+0.3%
On even strength, Sturm has a +5.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Sturm is 57.9% vs right-shot opponents (1,093).
Sturm shoots left. Carrick is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,179).
Home / Away
Sturm
Carrick
Home
57.1% (1,614)
51.2% (1,441)
Away
55.4% (1,665)
53.0% (1,577)
By Period
Sturm
Carrick
P1
56.5%
51.8%
P2
54.9%
52.2%
P3
57.4%
52.4%
Final 5 min
56.9%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 15, 2024 | 2 | 13:49 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 2 | 01:58 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 15, 2024 | 1 | 02:23 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 18:38 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 3 | 12:25 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 1 | 14:01 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 29, 2024 | 1 | 08:45 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 31, 2024 | 2 | 15:03 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 12, 2023 | 3 | 19:29 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 3 | 07:45 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 3 | 01:58 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 6, 2023 | 2 | 04:29 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 1 | 18:21 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 1 | 05:08 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 1 | 04:58 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Dec 9, 2022 | 1 | 02:31 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |