Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +8.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Sturm wins 57.9% vs right-shot opponents — Lafferty shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 56.1% vs Lafferty 47.6% (+8.9%)
H2H factor
Sturm leads 9-3 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Sturm 76.1%
Defensive zone
Sturm 84.2%
Neutral zone
Sturm 84.9%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 80.4%
80.4%
19.6%
Sturm
Lafferty
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
3
(12 meetings)
9
3
Sturm
Lafferty
Last 10: Sturm 8-2 Lafferty
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
5
1
Sturm
Lafferty
6 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Sturm
Lafferty
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
3
1
Sturm
Lafferty
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Lafferty
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (2,719)
48.0% (1,413)
+9.1%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
45.7% (46)
+15.6%
Penalty Kill
51.0% (498)
43.5% (184)
+7.5%
On power play, Sturm has a +15.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lafferty shoots right. Sturm is 57.9% vs right-shot opponents (1,093).
Sturm shoots left. Lafferty is 47.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,248).
Home / Away
Sturm
Lafferty
Home
57.1% (1,614)
47.3% (833)
Away
55.4% (1,665)
47.5% (810)
By Period
Sturm
Lafferty
P1
56.5%
49.4%
P2
54.9%
43.1%
P3
57.4%
49.8%
OT
60.6%
60.0%
Final 5 min
56.9%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Lafferty
56.0%▲
51.0%
47.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2025 | 2 | 10:26 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 2 | 07:15 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 1 | 13:03 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 3 | 16:51 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 3 | 16:47 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 3 | 16:12 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 3 | 05:41 | Offensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 2 | 02:16 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 2 | 02:09 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 1 | 14:01 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 1 | 04:00 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Jan 1, 2023 | 1 | 15:30 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |