Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +18.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Sturm wins 67.8% vs right-shot opponents — Lafferty shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 59.0% vs Lafferty 43.9% (+18.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 61.0%
Defensive zone
Sturm 85.3%
Neutral zone
Sturm 80.4%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 71.3%
71.3%
28.7%
Sturm
Lafferty
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
3
(8 meetings)
5
3
Sturm
Lafferty
Last 8: Sturm 5-3 Lafferty
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
3
1
Sturm
Lafferty
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lafferty
0
1
Sturm
Lafferty
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
2
1
Sturm
Lafferty
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Lafferty
Edge
Even Strength
60.6% (708)
42.6% (324)
+18.0%
Power Play
61.1% (18)
31.3% (16)
+29.8%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (101)
43.8% (16)
+12.6%
On power play, Sturm has a +29.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lafferty shoots right. Sturm is 67.8% vs right-shot opponents (264).
Sturm shoots left. Lafferty is 43.7% vs left-shot opponents (268).
Home / Away
Sturm
Lafferty
Home
61.6% (451)
40.9% (181)
Away
58.2% (376)
43.4% (175)
By Period
Sturm
Lafferty
P1
55.9%
42.2%
P2
58.9%
36.4%
P3
64.6%
48.6%
Final 5 min
59.5%
37.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
60.1%
Lafferty
56.0%▲
51.0%
42.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2023 | 3 | 16:51 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 3 | 16:47 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 3 | 16:12 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 3 | 05:41 | Offensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 2 | 02:16 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 2 | 02:09 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 1 | 14:01 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 2, 2023 | 1 | 04:00 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |