Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +8.2% FO% edge overall. Sturm wins 64.3% vs right-shot opponents — Lafferty shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 57.1% vs Lafferty 50.4% (+8.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 64.4%
Defensive zone
Sturm 86.7%
Neutral zone
Sturm 85.5%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 71.8%
71.8%
28.2%
Sturm
Lafferty
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
0
(3 meetings)
3
0
Sturm
Lafferty
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
2
0
Sturm
Lafferty
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
0
Sturm
Lafferty
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Lafferty
Edge
Even Strength
62.1% (356)
50.7% (144)
+11.4%
Power Play
75.0% (4)
50.0% (2)
+25.0%
Penalty Kill
38.7% (62)
50.0% (10)
-11.3%
On power play, Sturm has a +25.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lafferty shoots right. Sturm is 64.3% vs right-shot opponents (143).
Sturm shoots left. Lafferty is 48.1% vs left-shot opponents (133).
Home / Away
Sturm
Lafferty
Home
61.8% (191)
53.2% (62)
Away
56.3% (231)
48.9% (94)
By Period
Sturm
Lafferty
P1
58.0%
53.3%
P2
57.9%
46.7%
P3
60.6%
52.8%
Final 5 min
58.3%
52.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
58.8%
Lafferty
56.0%▲
51.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2025 | 2 | 10:26 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 2 | 07:15 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 8, 2025 | 1 | 13:03 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |