Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +13.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 10 meetings). Sturm wins 57.9% vs right-shot opponents — Reinhart shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 56.1% vs Reinhart 43.3% (+13.2%)
H2H factor
Sturm leads 9-3 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Sturm 75.8%
Defensive zone
Sturm 96.3%
Neutral zone
Sturm 92.9%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 92.9%
92.9%
7.1%
Sturm
Reinhart
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
3
(12 meetings)
9
3
Sturm
Reinhart
Last 10: Sturm 8-2 Reinhart
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Sturm
Reinhart
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
8
2
Sturm
Reinhart
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Reinhart
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (2,719)
42.5% (2,173)
+14.6%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
46.5% (525)
+14.8%
Penalty Kill
51.0% (498)
41.3% (339)
+9.7%
On power play, Sturm has a +14.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Reinhart shoots right. Sturm is 57.9% vs right-shot opponents (1,093).
Sturm shoots left. Reinhart is 41.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,283).
Home / Away
Sturm
Reinhart
Home
57.1% (1,614)
44.9% (1,528)
Away
55.4% (1,665)
41.2% (1,509)
By Period
Sturm
Reinhart
P1
56.5%
44.5%
P2
54.9%
40.5%
P3
57.4%
44.5%
OT
60.6%
43.5%
Final 5 min
56.9%
42.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Reinhart
40.0%▬
39.0%
43.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | 2 | 00:46 | Offensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 10:54 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 3 | 06:28 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 14:56 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 14:52 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 2 | 14:03 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 1 | 14:00 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 24, 2023 | 1 | 03:45 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 3 | 07:40 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 9, 2023 | 3 | 07:36 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 3 | 02:23 | Defensive | Sam Reinhart |
| Nov 3, 2022 | 1 | 17:19 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |