Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +4.5% FO% edge overall. Sturm wins 55.9% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 57.1% vs Kuraly 53.7% (+4.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Sturm 53.8%
Defensive zone
Sturm 50.7%
Neutral zone
Sturm 62.7%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 54.3%
54.3%
45.7%
Sturm
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Sturm
Kuraly
Last 5: Sturm 3-2 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Sturm
Kuraly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
2
0
Sturm
Kuraly
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
1
Sturm
Kuraly
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
62.1% (356)
55.3% (515)
+6.8%
Power Play
75.0% (4)
55.6% (9)
+19.4%
Penalty Kill
38.7% (62)
44.8% (58)
-6.1%
On power play, Sturm has a +19.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Sturm is 55.9% vs left-shot opponents (279).
Sturm shoots left. Kuraly is 57.6% vs left-shot opponents (387).
Home / Away
Sturm
Kuraly
Home
61.8% (191)
57.3% (293)
Away
56.3% (231)
51.2% (289)
By Period
Sturm
Kuraly
P1
58.0%
53.8%
P2
57.9%
51.5%
P3
60.6%
57.6%
Final 5 min
58.3%
53.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
56.0%▼
58.5%
58.8%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
53.5%
54.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 06:35 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 16:38 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 13:25 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 3 | 18:07 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 3 | 02:31 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |