Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +6.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Sturm wins 55.5% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 56.2% vs Kuraly 50.3% (+6.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kuraly 54.5%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 59.3%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 57.7%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 57.5%
42.5%
57.5%
Sturm
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Sturm
Kuraly
Last 8: Sturm 4-4 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Sturm
Kuraly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
2
1
Sturm
Kuraly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
1
2
Sturm
Kuraly
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
57.1% (2,681)
51.5% (5,067)
+5.6%
Power Play
61.3% (62)
56.0% (100)
+5.3%
Penalty Kill
51.7% (482)
44.0% (1,063)
+7.7%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +7.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. Sturm is 55.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,159).
Sturm shoots left. Kuraly is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (4,037).
Home / Away
Sturm
Kuraly
Home
57.3% (1,595)
51.7% (3,152)
Away
55.5% (1,630)
48.7% (3,079)
By Period
Sturm
Kuraly
P1
56.4%
50.8%
P2
55.1%
50.0%
P3
57.6%
49.9%
OT
60.6%
54.8%
Final 5 min
57.0%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
56.0%▼
58.5%
56.4%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
53.5%
50.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2025 | 3 | 03:44 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 2 | 06:35 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 16:38 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 20, 2025 | 1 | 13:25 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 3 | 18:07 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |
| Nov 5, 2024 | 3 | 02:31 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Feb 17, 2024 | 2 | 01:05 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Jan 21, 2023 | 1 | 10:49 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |