Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.8% vs 56.1%). Look for Sturm on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Sturm wins 55.2% vs right-shot opponents — Trocheck shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 55.2% vs Trocheck 55.6% (-0.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Trocheck 82.3%
Defensive zone
Sturm 72.7%
Neutral zone
Trocheck 56.6%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 66.9%
66.9%
33.1%
Sturm
Trocheck
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Sturm
Trocheck
Last 5: Sturm 4-1 Trocheck
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
4
0
Sturm
Trocheck
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Trocheck
0
1
Sturm
Trocheck
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Trocheck
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (716)
55.0% (956)
+1.1%
Power Play
67.7% (31)
59.8% (266)
+7.9%
Penalty Kill
51.1% (133)
56.3% (64)
-5.2%
On power play, Sturm has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Trocheck shoots right. Sturm is 55.2% vs right-shot opponents (288).
Sturm shoots left. Trocheck is 57.2% vs left-shot opponents (880).
Home / Away
Sturm
Trocheck
Home
55.6% (412)
57.7% (673)
Away
56.0% (468)
54.3% (613)
By Period
Sturm
Trocheck
P1
59.6%
55.4%
P2
52.0%
55.6%
P3
55.5%
56.4%
OT
60.0%
83.3%
Final 5 min
56.8%
57.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
55.8%
Trocheck
60.0%▲
57.0%
56.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2022 | 3 | 15:02 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 2 | 14:19 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Vincent Trocheck |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 1 | 08:55 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Oct 20, 2022 | 1 | 00:59 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |