Scouting Report
Vincent Trocheck holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Sturm wins 54.2% vs right-shot opponents — Trocheck shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 53.6% vs Trocheck 56.0% (-2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Trocheck 84.0%
Defensive zone
Sturm 58.2%
Neutral zone
Trocheck 58.7%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 58.2%
58.2%
41.8%
Sturm
Trocheck
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
0
(1 meetings)
1
0
Sturm
Trocheck
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
1
0
Sturm
Trocheck
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Trocheck
Edge
Even Strength
54.6% (271)
57.8% (626)
-3.2%
Penalty Kill
54.4% (90)
44.0% (141)
+10.4%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +10.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Trocheck shoots right. Sturm is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (118).
Sturm shoots left. Trocheck is 57.3% vs left-shot opponents (627).
Home / Away
Sturm
Trocheck
Home
53.0% (168)
54.4% (390)
Away
56.0% (193)
58.3% (528)
By Period
Sturm
Trocheck
P1
58.2%
56.4%
P2
53.2%
58.7%
P3
52.3%
54.8%
OT
100.0%
57.1%
Final 5 min
55.7%
53.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
54.6%
Trocheck
60.0%▲
57.0%
56.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | 2 | 11:25 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |