Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Trocheck on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Sturm wins 67.8% vs right-shot opponents — Trocheck shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Sturm 59.0% vs Trocheck 58.2% (+1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Trocheck 73.3%
Defensive zone
Sturm 80.8%
Neutral zone
Trocheck 52.0%
Result
Vincent Trocheck favored at 51.7%
48.3%
51.7%
Sturm
Trocheck
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Sturm
Trocheck
Last 5: Sturm 3-2 Trocheck
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Trocheck
1
2
Sturm
Trocheck
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Sturm
2
0
Sturm
Trocheck
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Sturm
Trocheck
Edge
Even Strength
60.6% (708)
57.6% (1,061)
+3.0%
Power Play
61.1% (18)
65.1% (338)
-4.0%
Penalty Kill
56.4% (101)
49.5% (101)
+6.9%
On penalty kill, Sturm has a +6.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Trocheck shoots right. Sturm is 67.8% vs right-shot opponents (264).
Sturm shoots left. Trocheck is 59.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,118).
Home / Away
Sturm
Trocheck
Home
61.6% (451)
61.8% (735)
Away
58.2% (376)
55.8% (765)
By Period
Sturm
Trocheck
P1
55.9%
57.7%
P2
58.9%
57.9%
P3
64.6%
60.4%
OT
70.6%
60.0%
Final 5 min
59.5%
58.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
60.1%
Trocheck
60.0%▲
57.0%
58.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2024 | 3 | 14:06 | Offensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 3 | 11:46 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 3 | 03:06 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 2 | 13:57 | Offensive | Vincent Trocheck |
| Jan 23, 2024 | 2 | 05:28 | Offensive | Nico Sturm |