Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.7% vs 47.8%). Look for Roy on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Roy wins 55.9% vs right-shot opponents — Hartman shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 47.9% vs Hartman 48.1% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hartman 51.4%
Defensive zone
Roy 57.6%
Neutral zone
Roy 51.0%
Result
Ryan Hartman favored at 50.2%
49.8%
50.2%
Roy
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Roy
Hartman
Last 6: Roy 3-3 Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Roy
2
1
Roy
Hartman
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hartman
1
2
Roy
Hartman
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (679)
48.1% (520)
+0.5%
Power Play
48.0% (50)
44.7% (47)
+3.3%
Penalty Kill
34.7% (49)
47.8% (23)
-13.1%
On penalty kill, Hartman has a +13.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. Roy is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (186).
Roy shoots right. Hartman is 52.7% vs right-shot opponents (148).
Home / Away
Roy
Hartman
Home
49.3% (345)
48.3% (360)
Away
46.4% (433)
47.0% (230)
By Period
Roy
Hartman
P1
47.6%
48.5%
P2
47.1%
45.2%
P3
47.9%
49.6%
OT
75.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
45.5%
42.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
47.7%
Hartman
54.0%▲
52.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25, 2025 | 3 | 14:57 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 2 | 11:24 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 2 | 11:20 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 2 | 06:51 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 1 | 19:27 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 25, 2025 | 1 | 03:45 | Neutral | Ryan Hartman |