Scouting Report
Nicolas Roy holds a +7.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hartman on offensive-zone draws (80% H2H, 5 meetings). Roy wins 60.4% vs right-shot opponents — Hartman shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 51.9% vs Hartman 45.5% (+7.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hartman 72.0%
Defensive zone
Roy 72.2%
Neutral zone
Hartman 53.2%
Result
Ryan Hartman favored at 64.9%
35.1%
64.9%
Roy
Hartman
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
4
(8 meetings)
4
4
Roy
Hartman
Last 8: Roy 4-4 Hartman
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hartman
1
4
Roy
Hartman
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Roy
3
0
Roy
Hartman
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Hartman
Edge
Even Strength
51.9% (547)
44.8% (830)
+7.1%
Power Play
54.1% (37)
47.8% (92)
+6.3%
Penalty Kill
53.3% (92)
37.5% (16)
+15.8%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +15.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Hartman shoots right. Roy is 60.4% vs right-shot opponents (212).
Roy shoots right. Hartman is 44.7% vs right-shot opponents (284).
Home / Away
Roy
Hartman
Home
54.0% (328)
45.0% (515)
Away
50.6% (348)
44.9% (423)
By Period
Roy
Hartman
P1
53.5%
46.5%
P2
51.6%
39.9%
P3
51.6%
48.6%
Final 5 min
48.1%
43.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
52.2%
Hartman
54.0%▲
52.0%
45.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 12:36 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 2 | 12:19 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 1 | 15:04 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 1 | 11:49 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Mar 8, 2026 | 1 | 03:56 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 17:22 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 3 | 13:46 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 19, 2026 | 2 | 09:38 | Offensive | Ryan Hartman |