Scouting Report
Sam Lafferty holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Lafferty on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Roy wins 53.7% vs right-shot opponents — Lafferty shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 48.3% vs Lafferty 50.9% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 57.9%
Defensive zone
Roy 58.5%
Neutral zone
Roy 62.8%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 62.8%
62.8%
37.2%
Roy
Lafferty
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
3
(4 meetings)
1
3
Roy
Lafferty
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lafferty
1
3
Roy
Lafferty
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Lafferty
Edge
Even Strength
48.3% (633)
52.2% (366)
-3.9%
Power Play
52.1% (48)
60.0% (15)
-7.9%
Penalty Kill
43.7% (87)
46.2% (104)
-2.5%
On power play, Lafferty has a +7.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lafferty shoots right. Roy is 53.7% vs right-shot opponents (218).
Roy shoots right. Lafferty is 53.3% vs right-shot opponents (122).
Home / Away
Roy
Lafferty
Home
50.8% (376)
53.1% (258)
Away
45.4% (392)
48.9% (227)
By Period
Roy
Lafferty
P1
53.8%
52.5%
P2
43.5%
49.7%
P3
46.4%
51.3%
OT
75.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
47.2%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.0%
Lafferty
56.0%▲
51.0%
51.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 15, 2022 | 3 | 16:06 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 1 | 14:41 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |