Scouting Report
Sam Lafferty holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Roy wins 55.9% vs right-shot opponents — Lafferty shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 47.9% vs Lafferty 50.4% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Roy 68.8%
Defensive zone
Roy 66.9%
Neutral zone
Roy 65.4%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 67.0%
67.0%
33.0%
Roy
Lafferty
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
3
(3 meetings)
0
3
Roy
Lafferty
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lafferty
0
1
Roy
Lafferty
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Lafferty
0
1
Roy
Lafferty
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lafferty
0
1
Roy
Lafferty
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Lafferty
Edge
Even Strength
48.6% (679)
50.7% (144)
-2.1%
Power Play
48.0% (50)
50.0% (2)
-2.0%
Penalty Kill
34.7% (49)
50.0% (10)
-15.3%
On penalty kill, Lafferty has a +15.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lafferty shoots right. Roy is 55.9% vs right-shot opponents (186).
Roy shoots right. Lafferty is 65.2% vs right-shot opponents (23).
Home / Away
Roy
Lafferty
Home
49.3% (345)
53.2% (62)
Away
46.4% (433)
48.9% (94)
By Period
Roy
Lafferty
P1
47.6%
53.3%
P2
47.1%
46.7%
P3
47.9%
52.8%
Final 5 min
45.5%
52.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
47.7%
Lafferty
56.0%▲
51.0%
50.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2025 | 3 | 12:19 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 2 | 16:36 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 1 | 05:18 | Offensive | Sam Lafferty |