Scouting Report
Nicolas Roy holds a +1.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Lafferty on neutral-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings). Roy wins 54.2% vs right-shot opponents — Lafferty shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 48.4% vs Lafferty 47.6% (+1.0%)
H2H factor
Lafferty leads 11-6 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Roy 55.4%
Defensive zone
Lafferty 51.3%
Neutral zone
Lafferty 50.1%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 52.3%
52.3%
47.7%
Roy
Lafferty
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
11
(17 meetings)
6
11
Roy
Lafferty
Last 10: Roy 2-8 Lafferty
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Lafferty
3
5
Roy
Lafferty
8 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Roy
Lafferty
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Lafferty
2
5
Roy
Lafferty
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Lafferty
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (3,719)
48.0% (1,413)
+0.7%
Power Play
49.5% (283)
45.7% (46)
+3.8%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (477)
43.5% (184)
+2.0%
On power play, Roy has a +3.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Lafferty shoots right. Roy is 54.2% vs right-shot opponents (1,191).
Roy shoots right. Lafferty is 48.9% vs right-shot opponents (395).
Home / Away
Roy
Lafferty
Home
49.5% (2,221)
47.3% (833)
Away
47.3% (2,258)
47.5% (810)
By Period
Roy
Lafferty
P1
50.8%
49.4%
P2
46.3%
43.1%
P3
48.1%
49.8%
OT
50.0%
60.0%
Final 5 min
47.2%
45.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.4%
Lafferty
56.0%▲
51.0%
47.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2025 | 3 | 12:19 | Defensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 2 | 16:36 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 1 | 05:18 | Offensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 2 | 03:13 | Offensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 1 | 18:14 | Offensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Nov 30, 2023 | 1 | 11:54 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 3 | 16:06 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Dec 15, 2022 | 1 | 14:41 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Apr 27, 2022 | 2 | 19:30 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Apr 27, 2022 | 2 | 01:26 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Apr 27, 2022 | 1 | 19:57 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Apr 27, 2022 | 1 | 17:39 | Neutral | Sam Lafferty |
| Mar 26, 2022 | 1 | 13:19 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 7, 2020 | 2 | 16:25 | Offensive | Sam Lafferty |
| Jan 7, 2020 | 2 | 02:04 | Offensive | Sam Lafferty |