Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +8.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Roy wins 45.0% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 47.2% vs Monahan 54.5% (-8.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 87.3%
Defensive zone
Monahan 50.1%
Neutral zone
Monahan 77.7%
Result
Sean Monahan favored at 63.1%
36.9%
63.1%
Roy
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Roy
Monahan
Last 5: Roy 3-2 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
1
Roy
Monahan
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
3
0
Roy
Monahan
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
1
Roy
Monahan
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (617)
57.1% (871)
-9.6%
Power Play
39.6% (53)
53.1% (262)
-13.5%
Penalty Kill
46.4% (97)
44.6% (139)
+1.8%
On power play, Monahan has a +13.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Roy is 45.0% vs left-shot opponents (593).
Roy shoots right. Monahan is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (519).
Home / Away
Roy
Monahan
Home
47.2% (398)
55.3% (644)
Away
46.3% (369)
54.5% (628)
By Period
Roy
Monahan
P1
48.6%
53.9%
P2
48.8%
55.3%
P3
43.9%
54.4%
OT
0.0%
76.5%
Final 5 min
45.1%
55.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
46.8%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
54.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 28, 2024 | 3 | 11:43 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 2 | 13:37 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 2 | 13:25 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 2 | 05:26 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 3 | 00:13 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |