Scouting Report
Sean Monahan holds a +2.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Roy on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Roy wins 46.3% vs left-shot opponents — Monahan shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 48.4% vs Monahan 51.3% (-2.9%)
H2H factor
Monahan leads 12-12 in 24 meetings
Offensive zone
Monahan 71.1%
Defensive zone
Roy 77.5%
Neutral zone
Roy 51.5%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 53.4%
53.4%
46.6%
Roy
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
12
(24 meetings)
12
12
Roy
Monahan
Last 10: Roy 5-5 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Monahan
2
4
Roy
Monahan
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
6
1
Roy
Monahan
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
4
7
Roy
Monahan
11 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (3,719)
51.1% (11,356)
-2.4%
Power Play
49.5% (283)
53.7% (2,580)
-4.2%
Penalty Kill
45.5% (477)
46.0% (766)
-0.5%
On power play, Monahan has a +4.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Roy is 46.3% vs left-shot opponents (3,288).
Roy shoots right. Monahan is 50.5% vs right-shot opponents (5,401).
Home / Away
Roy
Monahan
Home
49.5% (2,221)
52.4% (7,358)
Away
47.3% (2,258)
50.2% (7,344)
By Period
Roy
Monahan
P1
50.8%
50.9%
P2
46.3%
51.7%
P3
48.1%
51.0%
OT
50.0%
53.5%
Final 5 min
47.2%
50.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.4%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
51.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 13:38 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 13:55 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 2 | 08:33 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 1 | 18:18 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 3 | 11:43 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 2 | 13:37 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 2 | 13:25 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Mar 28, 2024 | 2 | 05:26 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 3 | 00:13 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 5, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Feb 9, 2022 | 1 | 16:11 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 5, 2021 | 3 | 07:35 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 5, 2021 | 3 | 07:26 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 5, 2021 | 3 | 01:53 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 5, 2021 | 3 | 01:49 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Dec 5, 2021 | 2 | 16:49 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 5, 2021 | 2 | 13:06 | Offensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Dec 5, 2021 | 2 | 09:15 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |
| Mar 8, 2020 | 3 | 15:30 | Offensive | Sean Monahan |