Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.2% vs 53.1%). Look for Roy on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Roy 51.9% vs Monahan 52.8% (-0.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Monahan 64.4%
Defensive zone
Roy 78.7%
Neutral zone
Roy 52.0%
Result
Nicolas Roy favored at 68.0%
68.0%
32.0%
Roy
Monahan
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Roy
Monahan
Last 5: Roy 2-3 Monahan
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
2
1
Roy
Monahan
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Monahan
0
2
Roy
Monahan
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Roy
Monahan
Edge
Even Strength
51.9% (547)
53.2% (823)
-1.3%
Power Play
54.1% (37)
55.3% (159)
-1.2%
Penalty Kill
53.3% (92)
48.4% (95)
+4.9%
On penalty kill, Roy has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Monahan shoots left. Roy is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (464).
Roy shoots right. Monahan is 53.4% vs right-shot opponents (401).
Home / Away
Roy
Monahan
Home
54.0% (328)
54.6% (529)
Away
50.6% (348)
51.6% (548)
By Period
Roy
Monahan
P1
53.5%
49.0%
P2
51.6%
55.4%
P3
51.6%
53.6%
Final 5 min
48.1%
54.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
52.2%
Monahan
54.0%▲
52.5%
53.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 26, 2025 | 2 | 13:38 | Defensive | Sean Monahan |
| Nov 26, 2025 | 1 | 13:55 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 2 | 08:33 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Monahan |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 1 | 18:18 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |