Scouting Report
Pavel Zacha holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Zacha wins 60.0% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zacha 54.4% vs Carrick 53.0% (+1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Zacha 75.6%
Defensive zone
Carrick 81.5%
Neutral zone
Carrick 61.5%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 54.2%
45.8%
54.2%
Zacha
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
5
(7 meetings)
2
5
Zacha
Carrick
Last 7: Zacha 2-5 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
2
1
Zacha
Carrick
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
3
Zacha
Carrick
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
1
Zacha
Carrick
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zacha
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
53.9% (787)
53.9% (521)
+0.0%
Power Play
63.2% (193)
57.1% (35)
+6.1%
Penalty Kill
44.3% (88)
51.5% (229)
-7.2%
On penalty kill, Carrick has a +7.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Zacha is 60.0% vs right-shot opponents (447).
Zacha shoots left. Carrick is 53.2% vs left-shot opponents (562).
Home / Away
Zacha
Carrick
Home
56.7% (538)
52.7% (408)
Away
52.8% (530)
54.1% (377)
By Period
Zacha
Carrick
P1
52.6%
51.4%
P2
54.8%
56.6%
P3
56.8%
52.1%
Final 5 min
51.9%
57.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
54.8%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
53.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26, 2023 | 2 | 00:49 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 1 | 06:22 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 22, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 22, 2023 | 1 | 18:49 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 22, 2023 | 1 | 13:40 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 22, 2023 | 1 | 02:19 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 22, 2023 | 1 | 00:17 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |