Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +3.1% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Zacha 49.1% vs Carrick 52.1% (-3.1%)
H2H factor
Carrick leads 11-6 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Zacha 86.1%
Defensive zone
Carrick 53.8%
Neutral zone
Zacha 67.0%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 65.2%
65.2%
34.8%
Zacha
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
11
(17 meetings)
6
11
Zacha
Carrick
Last 10: Zacha 4-6 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
4
2
Zacha
Carrick
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
7
Zacha
Carrick
7 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Zacha
Carrick
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Zacha
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (5,102)
52.1% (2,513)
-3.2%
Power Play
55.6% (804)
61.3% (75)
-5.7%
Penalty Kill
42.2% (555)
50.7% (430)
-8.5%
On penalty kill, Carrick has a +8.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Zacha is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (2,539).
Zacha shoots left. Carrick is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,179).
Home / Away
Zacha
Carrick
Home
49.7% (3,353)
51.2% (1,441)
Away
48.5% (3,108)
53.0% (1,577)
By Period
Zacha
Carrick
P1
49.9%
51.8%
P2
49.2%
52.2%
P3
48.1%
52.4%
Final 5 min
47.4%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
49.1%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2026 | 2 | 08:52 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 10, 2026 | 2 | 02:12 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Feb 1, 2025 | 2 | 08:46 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 2 | 00:49 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 26, 2023 | 1 | 06:22 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 22, 2023 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 22, 2023 | 1 | 18:49 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 22, 2023 | 1 | 13:40 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 22, 2023 | 1 | 02:19 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Oct 22, 2023 | 1 | 00:17 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Jan 8, 2023 | 3 | 03:19 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 3 | 19:34 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 3 | 02:47 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 3 | 02:44 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 2 | 14:18 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 1 | 16:22 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 12, 2022 | 1 | 11:02 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |