Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Danault on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Danault wins 53.9% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Danault 54.0% vs O'Reilly 55.2% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 54.1%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 55.2%
Neutral zone
Danault 50.0%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 53.6%
46.4%
53.6%
Danault
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
2
(7 meetings)
5
2
Danault
O'Reilly
Last 7: Danault 5-2 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Danault
O'Reilly
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Danault
3
1
Danault
O'Reilly
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Danault
2
0
Danault
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Danault
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
55.1% (953)
56.1% (690)
-1.0%
Power Play
64.6% (144)
64.6% (96)
+0.0%
Penalty Kill
42.0% (176)
45.9% (109)
-3.9%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +3.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Danault is 53.9% vs left-shot opponents (831).
Danault shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.4% vs left-shot opponents (603).
Home / Away
Danault
O'Reilly
Home
55.4% (641)
58.3% (408)
Away
53.3% (632)
53.6% (487)
By Period
Danault
O'Reilly
P1
61.0%
57.7%
P2
52.3%
54.8%
P3
51.3%
55.2%
OT
35.3%
45.5%
Final 5 min
54.5%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Danault
54.0%▼
57.5%
54.4%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2022 | 3 | 13:27 | Defensive | Phillip Danault |
| Oct 31, 2022 | 3 | 10:37 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 31, 2022 | 3 | 06:54 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 31, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Phillip Danault |
| Oct 31, 2022 | 2 | 09:59 | Neutral | Phillip Danault |
| Oct 31, 2022 | 1 | 15:21 | Defensive | Phillip Danault |
| Oct 31, 2022 | 1 | 15:12 | Defensive | Phillip Danault |