Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +3.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Danault on defensive-zone draws (71% H2H, 7 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Danault 52.1% vs O'Reilly 55.3% (-3.5%)
H2H factor
Danault leads 13-8 in 21 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 83.0%
Defensive zone
Danault 56.8%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 62.4%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 61.9%
38.1%
61.9%
Danault
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
8
(21 meetings)
13
8
Danault
O'Reilly
Last 10: Danault 6-4 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Danault
O'Reilly
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Danault
5
2
Danault
O'Reilly
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Danault
5
3
Danault
O'Reilly
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Danault
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (958)
56.2% (983)
-3.8%
Power Play
62.0% (71)
55.5% (254)
+6.5%
Penalty Kill
47.6% (187)
52.0% (102)
-4.4%
On power play, Danault has a +6.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Danault is 51.7% vs left-shot opponents (832).
Danault shoots left. O'Reilly is 57.3% vs left-shot opponents (848).
Home / Away
Danault
O'Reilly
Home
51.2% (605)
56.2% (697)
Away
53.2% (611)
55.1% (642)
By Period
Danault
O'Reilly
P1
53.1%
54.5%
P2
49.8%
55.5%
P3
54.3%
57.1%
OT
20.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
50.3%
56.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Danault
54.0%▼
57.5%
52.2%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2025 | 3 | 19:26 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 2 | 14:54 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 2 | 05:31 | Defensive | Phillip Danault |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 1 | 15:23 | Defensive | Phillip Danault |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 1 | 15:16 | Neutral | Phillip Danault |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 1 | 11:21 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 15, 2025 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Phillip Danault |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 2 | 03:36 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Dec 21, 2024 | 1 | 16:41 | Offensive | Phillip Danault |
| Nov 4, 2024 | 3 | 07:15 | Defensive | Phillip Danault |
| Nov 4, 2024 | 3 | 02:02 | Offensive | Phillip Danault |
| Nov 4, 2024 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 4, 2024 | 2 | 17:00 | Neutral | Phillip Danault |
| Nov 4, 2024 | 2 | 00:10 | Defensive | Phillip Danault |
| Nov 4, 2024 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Phillip Danault |
| Nov 4, 2024 | 1 | 17:52 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 4, 2024 | 1 | 11:43 | Offensive | Phillip Danault |
| Nov 4, 2024 | 1 | 05:28 | Defensive | Phillip Danault |
| Nov 4, 2024 | 1 | 02:59 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 4, 2024 | 1 | 00:04 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |