Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (55.3% vs 55.4%). Danault wins 55.3% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Danault 54.8% vs O'Reilly 54.9% (-0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 64.5%
Defensive zone
Danault 62.5%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 53.7%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 57.3%
42.7%
57.3%
Danault
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Danault
O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
1
Danault
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Danault
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Danault
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (711)
55.4% (826)
+1.1%
Power Play
46.0% (50)
57.9% (221)
-11.9%
Penalty Kill
51.7% (116)
50.4% (129)
+1.3%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +11.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Danault is 55.3% vs left-shot opponents (588).
Danault shoots left. O'Reilly is 55.6% vs left-shot opponents (662).
Home / Away
Danault
O'Reilly
Home
57.0% (379)
55.8% (579)
Away
54.0% (498)
54.9% (597)
By Period
Danault
O'Reilly
P1
55.8%
57.7%
P2
55.3%
54.8%
P3
54.8%
54.3%
OT
55.6%
50.0%
Final 5 min
55.7%
55.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Danault
54.0%▼
57.5%
55.3%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
55.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | OT | 04:02 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 05:55 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 25, 2025 | 3 | 05:30 | Neutral | Phillip Danault |