Scouting Report
Ryan Donato holds a +5.7% FO% edge overall. Donato wins 43.2% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Donato 48.1% vs Novak 43.4% (+5.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 71.4%
Defensive zone
Novak 68.8%
Neutral zone
Novak 64.1%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 70.1%
29.9%
70.1%
Donato
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Donato
Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Donato
Novak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Donato
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Donato
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
48.1% (258)
41.4% (379)
+6.7%
Power Play
43.2% (37)
46.9% (32)
-3.7%
On even strength, Donato has a +6.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Donato is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (169).
Donato shoots left. Novak is 41.7% vs left-shot opponents (271).
Home / Away
Donato
Novak
Home
45.8% (142)
42.6% (195)
Away
49.0% (153)
41.2% (216)
By Period
Donato
Novak
P1
48.1%
42.4%
P2
46.6%
39.2%
P3
46.8%
44.7%
OT
75.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
56.7%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Donato
46.0%▼
48.5%
47.5%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
41.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2025 | 1 | 01:33 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 1 | 01:21 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |