Scouting Report
Ryan Donato holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Donato wins 46.7% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Donato 46.0% vs Novak 43.5% (+1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 66.9%
Defensive zone
Novak 62.3%
Neutral zone
Novak 68.4%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 66.9%
33.1%
66.9%
Donato
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Donato
Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
2
Donato
Novak
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Donato
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
44.4% (180)
40.7% (460)
+3.7%
Power Play
43.2% (37)
61.5% (39)
-18.3%
Penalty Kill
40.0% (5)
0.0% (1)
+40.0%
On penalty kill, Donato has a +40.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Donato is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (137).
Donato shoots left. Novak is 42.4% vs left-shot opponents (340).
Home / Away
Donato
Novak
Home
45.4% (97)
47.0% (236)
Away
43.2% (125)
37.9% (264)
By Period
Donato
Novak
P1
36.2%
43.1%
P2
48.6%
43.1%
P3
46.9%
40.1%
Final 5 min
45.2%
38.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Donato
60.0%▲
50.5%
44.1%
Novak
44.0%▬
43.0%
42.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2024 | 3 | 16:30 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Apr 12, 2024 | 3 | 16:15 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |