Scouting Report
Ryan Donato holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Donato wins 44.4% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Donato 50.0% vs Novak 44.9% (+7.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 72.2%
Defensive zone
Novak 72.1%
Neutral zone
Novak 69.2%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 72.2%
27.8%
72.2%
Donato
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Donato
Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Donato
Novak
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Donato
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Donato
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
51.4% (175)
41.7% (206)
+9.7%
Power Play
41.9% (31)
52.6% (19)
-10.7%
On power play, Novak has a +10.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Donato is 44.4% vs left-shot opponents (135).
Donato shoots left. Novak is 41.2% vs left-shot opponents (148).
Home / Away
Donato
Novak
Home
48.6% (107)
44.9% (118)
Away
51.5% (99)
40.2% (107)
By Period
Donato
Novak
P1
52.0%
41.5%
P2
48.8%
44.0%
P3
47.8%
42.0%
Final 5 min
56.5%
42.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Donato
60.0%▲
50.5%
50.0%
Novak
44.0%▬
43.0%
42.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2025 | 1 | 01:33 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 1 | 01:21 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |