Scouting Report
Ryan Donato holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Donato wins 44.7% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Donato 44.9% vs Novak 43.3% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 64.4%
Defensive zone
Novak 64.5%
Neutral zone
Novak 62.5%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 64.5%
35.5%
64.5%
Donato
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
4
(4 meetings)
0
4
Donato
Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
3
Donato
Novak
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Donato
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Donato
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
44.2% (1,179)
42.1% (1,539)
+2.1%
Power Play
46.3% (246)
51.9% (133)
-5.6%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (11)
50.0% (2)
-13.6%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +13.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Donato is 44.7% vs left-shot opponents (889).
Donato shoots left. Novak is 43.2% vs left-shot opponents (1,078).
Home / Away
Donato
Novak
Home
47.2% (743)
45.3% (814)
Away
41.6% (693)
40.6% (860)
By Period
Donato
Novak
P1
43.4%
43.9%
P2
45.1%
42.8%
P3
44.4%
41.7%
OT
70.0%
66.7%
Final 5 min
47.5%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Donato
46.0%▼
48.5%
44.5%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
42.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2025 | 1 | 01:33 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 1 | 01:21 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Apr 12, 2024 | 3 | 16:30 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Apr 12, 2024 | 3 | 16:15 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |