Scouting Report
Ryan Donato holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Novak on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Donato wins 44.9% vs left-shot opponents — Novak shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Donato 45.1% vs Novak 43.6% (+1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (4 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Novak 70.3%
Defensive zone
Novak 70.1%
Neutral zone
Novak 68.3%
Result
Tommy Novak favored at 70.2%
29.8%
70.2%
Donato
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
4
(4 meetings)
0
4
Donato
Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
3
Donato
Novak
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Novak
0
1
Donato
Novak
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Donato
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
44.4% (1,096)
42.2% (1,366)
+2.2%
Power Play
46.3% (240)
53.3% (120)
-7.0%
Penalty Kill
36.4% (11)
50.0% (2)
-13.6%
On penalty kill, Novak has a +13.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Donato is 44.9% vs left-shot opponents (855).
Donato shoots left. Novak is 43.4% vs left-shot opponents (955).
Home / Away
Donato
Novak
Home
47.7% (708)
46.0% (737)
Away
41.3% (639)
40.3% (751)
By Period
Donato
Novak
P1
43.5%
43.9%
P2
45.4%
44.2%
P3
44.4%
40.9%
OT
77.8%
100.0%
Final 5 min
46.9%
40.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Donato
60.0%▲
50.5%
44.7%
Novak
44.0%▬
43.0%
43.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 28, 2025 | 1 | 01:33 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 1 | 01:21 | Defensive | Tommy Novak |
| Apr 12, 2024 | 3 | 16:30 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Apr 12, 2024 | 3 | 16:15 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |