Ryan Nugent-Hopkins vs Sam Carrick
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Nugent-Hopkins wins 45.8% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nugent-Hopkins 48.6% vs Carrick 53.8% (-6.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 75.3%
Defensive zone
Carrick 67.4%
Neutral zone
Nugent-Hopkins 54.3%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 67.4%
32.6%
67.4%
Nugent-Hopkins
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Nugent-Hopkins
Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
0
1
Nugent-Hopkins
Carrick
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nugent-Hopkins
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
47.6% (231)
55.1% (439)
-7.5%
Power Play
83.3% (12)
66.7% (3)
+16.6%
Penalty Kill
33.3% (21)
49.1% (53)
-15.8%
On power play, Nugent-Hopkins has a +16.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Nugent-Hopkins is 45.8% vs right-shot opponents (96).
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Carrick is 53.5% vs left-shot opponents (355).
Home / Away
Nugent-Hopkins
Carrick
Home
51.2% (164)
58.2% (225)
Away
43.0% (100)
51.5% (270)
By Period
Nugent-Hopkins
Carrick
P1
50.0%
56.7%
P2
46.2%
52.8%
P3
49.5%
54.4%
Final 5 min
44.8%
54.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nugent-Hopkins
58.0%▲
50.0%
48.1%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
54.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 17:39 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |