Ryan Nugent-Hopkins vs Sam Carrick
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +7.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Carrick on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). Nugent-Hopkins wins 44.9% vs right-shot opponents — Carrick shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nugent-Hopkins 44.8% vs Carrick 52.1% (-7.5%)
H2H factor
Carrick leads 12-6 in 18 meetings
Offensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 84.5%
Defensive zone
Nugent-Hopkins 51.6%
Neutral zone
Nugent-Hopkins 71.9%
Result
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins favored at 68.2%
68.2%
31.8%
Nugent-Hopkins
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
12
(18 meetings)
6
12
Nugent-Hopkins
Carrick
Last 10: Nugent-Hopkins 3-7 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
3
3
Nugent-Hopkins
Carrick
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
6
Nugent-Hopkins
Carrick
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Carrick
2
3
Nugent-Hopkins
Carrick
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nugent-Hopkins
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
44.9% (8,756)
52.1% (2,513)
-7.2%
Power Play
50.7% (839)
61.3% (75)
-10.6%
Penalty Kill
37.9% (879)
50.7% (430)
-12.8%
On penalty kill, Carrick has a +12.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Nugent-Hopkins is 44.9% vs right-shot opponents (3,645).
Nugent-Hopkins shoots left. Carrick is 52.5% vs left-shot opponents (2,179).
Home / Away
Nugent-Hopkins
Carrick
Home
46.5% (5,350)
51.2% (1,441)
Away
42.9% (5,136)
53.0% (1,577)
By Period
Nugent-Hopkins
Carrick
P1
45.1%
51.8%
P2
43.9%
52.2%
P3
45.3%
52.4%
Final 5 min
43.7%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nugent-Hopkins
58.0%▲
50.0%
44.7%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2025 | 2 | 17:39 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 2 | 05:00 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Mar 16, 2025 | 2 | 01:47 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 2 | 12:30 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 11, 2023 | 3 | 05:01 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 11, 2023 | 2 | 13:47 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Jan 11, 2023 | 1 | 14:22 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 11, 2023 | 1 | 10:59 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 11, 2023 | 1 | 10:51 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Jan 11, 2023 | 1 | 08:24 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Jan 11, 2023 | 1 | 01:14 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 2 | 04:36 | Offensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Apr 3, 2022 | 3 | 06:19 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 3 | 15:42 | Neutral | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 3 | 15:29 | Defensive | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins |
| Feb 17, 2022 | 3 | 10:19 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 30, 2019 | 3 | 08:10 | Defensive | Sam Carrick |
| Mar 30, 2019 | 2 | 06:20 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |