Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +4.8% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Matthews 51.9% vs O'Reilly 56.5% (-4.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Matthews 72.1%
Defensive zone
Matthews 70.3%
Neutral zone
Matthews 71.0%
Result
Auston Matthews favored at 71.0%
71.0%
29.0%
Matthews
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
7
(9 meetings)
2
7
Matthews
O'Reilly
Last 9: Matthews 2-7 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Matthews
O'Reilly
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
3
Matthews
O'Reilly
3 total
Neutral Zone
Even
2
2
Matthews
O'Reilly
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Matthews
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
52.4% (892)
57.1% (1,367)
-4.7%
Power Play
45.5% (11)
59.4% (286)
-13.9%
Penalty Kill
37.5% (8)
52.5% (257)
-15.0%
On penalty kill, O'Reilly has a +15.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Matthews is 52.0% vs left-shot opponents (606).
Matthews shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,201).
Home / Away
Matthews
O'Reilly
Home
54.3% (420)
59.2% (936)
Away
50.3% (491)
54.6% (974)
By Period
Matthews
O'Reilly
P1
54.2%
57.3%
P2
54.3%
57.5%
P3
47.8%
55.0%
OT
55.6%
71.1%
Final 5 min
55.8%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Matthews
70.0%▲
64.0%
52.1%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 19, 2019 | 3 | 06:34 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 19, 2019 | 2 | 05:48 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Feb 19, 2019 | 2 | 05:33 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 20, 2018 | 3 | 06:58 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 20, 2018 | 2 | 12:49 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 20, 2018 | 2 | 12:39 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 20, 2018 | 2 | 03:36 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 20, 2018 | 1 | 17:01 | Neutral | Auston Matthews |
| Oct 20, 2018 | 1 | 01:30 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |