Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +15.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Barzal on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Barzal wins 41.1% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Barzal 42.9% vs O'Reilly 56.2% (-15.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 56.3%
Defensive zone
O'Reilly 60.5%
Neutral zone
O'Reilly 57.4%
Result
Ryan O'Reilly favored at 57.4%
42.6%
57.4%
Barzal
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
3
(6 meetings)
3
3
Barzal
O'Reilly
Last 6: Barzal 3-3 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
2
1
Barzal
O'Reilly
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Barzal
1
0
Barzal
O'Reilly
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Barzal
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Barzal
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
40.7% (514)
57.3% (1,073)
-16.6%
Power Play
58.3% (24)
58.5% (258)
-0.2%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (10)
50.7% (225)
-0.7%
On even strength, O'Reilly has a +16.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Barzal is 41.1% vs left-shot opponents (392).
Barzal shoots right. O'Reilly is 61.4% vs right-shot opponents (594).
Home / Away
Barzal
O'Reilly
Home
43.0% (279)
59.2% (765)
Away
40.1% (269)
54.0% (791)
By Period
Barzal
O'Reilly
P1
41.2%
55.6%
P2
46.4%
61.0%
P3
37.1%
52.3%
OT
50.0%
61.3%
Final 5 min
48.3%
58.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Barzal
36.0%▼
44.0%
41.6%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2020 | 3 | 18:41 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Feb 27, 2020 | 1 | 18:55 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 14, 2019 | 3 | 17:53 | Offensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 14, 2019 | 2 | 10:22 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 14, 2019 | 1 | 09:52 | Defensive | Mathew Barzal |
| Oct 14, 2019 | 1 | 06:48 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |