Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for O'Reilly on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 8 meetings). Danault wins 53.8% vs left-shot opponents — O'Reilly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Danault 55.2% vs O'Reilly 56.5% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
O'Reilly leads 11-5 in 16 meetings
Offensive zone
O'Reilly 62.0%
Defensive zone
Danault 72.4%
Neutral zone
Danault 57.4%
Result
Phillip Danault favored at 53.3%
53.3%
46.7%
Danault
O'Reilly
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
11
(16 meetings)
5
11
Danault
O'Reilly
Last 10: Danault 3-7 O'Reilly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
2
6
Danault
O'Reilly
8 total
Defensive Zone
Even
3
3
Danault
O'Reilly
6 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
0
2
Danault
O'Reilly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Danault
O'Reilly
Edge
Even Strength
54.8% (1,222)
57.1% (1,367)
-2.3%
Power Play
81.6% (49)
59.4% (286)
+22.2%
Penalty Kill
54.3% (317)
52.5% (257)
+1.8%
On power play, Danault has a +22.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
O'Reilly shoots left. Danault is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,042).
Danault shoots left. O'Reilly is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (1,201).
Home / Away
Danault
O'Reilly
Home
56.2% (770)
59.2% (936)
Away
54.9% (818)
54.6% (974)
By Period
Danault
O'Reilly
P1
52.5%
57.3%
P2
57.9%
57.5%
P3
55.6%
55.0%
OT
66.7%
71.1%
Final 5 min
56.2%
54.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Danault
54.0%▼
57.5%
55.5%
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 10, 2019 | 3 | 15:37 | Defensive | Phillip Danault |
| Jan 10, 2019 | 3 | 03:43 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 10, 2019 | 3 | 02:39 | Defensive | Phillip Danault |
| Jan 10, 2019 | 3 | 02:32 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 10, 2019 | 2 | 10:25 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 10, 2019 | 1 | 19:24 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Jan 10, 2019 | 1 | 01:14 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 17, 2018 | 3 | 15:15 | Defensive | Phillip Danault |
| Oct 17, 2018 | 3 | 06:07 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 17, 2018 | 3 | 03:10 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 17, 2018 | 3 | 01:05 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 17, 2018 | 2 | 14:36 | Offensive | Phillip Danault |
| Oct 17, 2018 | 2 | 11:34 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 17, 2018 | 2 | 02:34 | Offensive | Phillip Danault |
| Oct 17, 2018 | 1 | 12:20 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Oct 17, 2018 | 1 | 00:39 | Neutral | Ryan O'Reilly |