Scouting Report
Ryan O'Reilly holds a +7.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Kuraly on defensive-zone draws (86% H2H, 7 meetings). O'Reilly wins 58.8% vs left-shot opponents — Kuraly shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
O'Reilly 56.4% vs Kuraly 49.5% (+7.4%)
H2H factor
Kuraly leads 9-5 in 14 meetings
Offensive zone
Kuraly 55.6%
Defensive zone
Kuraly 85.9%
Neutral zone
Kuraly 72.0%
Result
Sean Kuraly favored at 73.1%
26.9%
73.1%
O'Reilly
Kuraly
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
9
(14 meetings)
5
9
O'Reilly
Kuraly
Last 10: O'Reilly 4-6 Kuraly
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: O'Reilly
4
1
O'Reilly
Kuraly
5 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Kuraly
1
6
O'Reilly
Kuraly
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kuraly
0
2
O'Reilly
Kuraly
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
O'Reilly
Kuraly
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (1,064)
52.3% (982)
+4.3%
Power Play
60.4% (260)
41.9% (43)
+18.5%
Penalty Kill
54.0% (261)
39.2% (245)
+14.8%
On power play, O'Reilly has a +18.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Kuraly shoots left. O'Reilly is 58.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,003).
O'Reilly shoots left. Kuraly is 51.8% vs left-shot opponents (859).
Home / Away
O'Reilly
Kuraly
Home
54.9% (801)
50.3% (680)
Away
58.7% (784)
48.5% (590)
By Period
O'Reilly
Kuraly
P1
58.0%
49.5%
P2
56.7%
49.6%
P3
55.4%
49.0%
OT
64.7%
57.1%
Final 5 min
56.4%
47.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
O'Reilly
54.0%▼
55.5%
56.8%
Kuraly
64.0%▲
57.0%
49.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 19, 2022 | 3 | 14:23 | Defensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 19, 2022 | 3 | 10:32 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 19, 2022 | 3 | 07:29 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 19, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 19, 2022 | 2 | 18:13 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Mar 19, 2022 | 1 | 12:01 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Mar 19, 2022 | 1 | 04:34 | Offensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 27, 2021 | 3 | 04:24 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 27, 2021 | 3 | 01:27 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 27, 2021 | 2 | 15:45 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 27, 2021 | 2 | 13:12 | Neutral | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 27, 2021 | 2 | 07:19 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |
| Nov 27, 2021 | 1 | 19:35 | Offensive | Ryan O'Reilly |
| Nov 27, 2021 | 1 | 13:05 | Defensive | Sean Kuraly |